3 Hours Out..Here's How It Goes Down

Last Minute Tape Study...And some Other Thoughts

Here is the deal on Nate Diaz, he is actually one of the most hit-table fighters I have ever seen on tape. Just watched the Anthony Pettis-Diaz fight again this morning from UFC 241, and man, Diaz lost the stand up battle. So much so that Diaz had to resort to mostly holding Pettis up against the cage, to keep the brilliant striker stifled. Can Diaz keep Masvidal up against the cage tonight? I am not so sure. Pettis is a very undersized welterweight, and Masvidal is a grown man. I sincerely doubt that Diaz can stifle Masvidal against the fence and control his wrists long enough to land offense with knees and short punches, like he did with Pettis.

Another thing, Diaz is long lauded for his boxing skills, but honestly Masvidal is a better boxer than Diaz. So it really comes down to this, in the open can Masvidal win the striking engagements in the open? I think he can, and will. Can Nate Diaz pin Masvidal to the cage and wear him down? I don’t think so. Can Nate Diaz take everything Masvidal gives him and still stand there and wear his opponent out? Maybe. I don’t see Masvidal gassing. I also do not see Diaz getting finished. He is to tough, too durable. Too much pride. I think Masvidal does enough in the striking engagements. I think he is a better wrestler if it gets to that. I think Masvidal wins by unanimous decision. I can check no boxes for Diaz over Masvidal. Jorge Masvidal is the ‘‘BMF’’ more importantly he’ll arrive as the #1 contender to the welterweight throne.

Donald Trump will be in attendance for tonight’s event. From what I was told, the Secret Service was doing their forward sweeps yesterday. I don’t want to talk political bullshit tonight, and I hate when politics intersects my sports. I don’t care how much you hate Trump. Trump is rich and doesn’t give a fuck me, or you. Just like every other Politician on earth. That’s my hot political take for the night.

In regards to the Co-Main, Kelvin Gastelum has shown an incredible ability to get on the inside when he is matched up against these longer strikers. I expect a wrestling heavy attack from Gastelum tonight. Darren Till has shown that his ground game is literally zero. That said, I expected Gastelum to have a wrestle-heavy approach against Adesanya as well, and he stood toe-to-toe with him for 5 rounds. So what the hell do I know? Looking forward to seeing Till at 185, but I hate this match-up for Till. I could see Gastelum finishing the Scouser’ early, much like the Masvidal fight earlier this year. Gastelum wins, and Till searches for answers..

Gregor Gillespie will be introduced to the world tonight. I am excited for that. It looks to me like Kevin Lee has a bit of Staph again on his chest. Again, Kevin Lee is not a 155er. He is also not a 170er. He is the perfect example as to why a 165lb division should happen. I like nothing about this match-up for Lee, I could see him getting finished early. Viva’ Gregor.

If Wonderboy can stop being so damn tentative in his attack, I could see him beating Vincente Luque tonight. He is going to have to get more aggressive, because Luque moves forward and does not stop. I love this match-up, this fight could be the low key fight of the night. I think Thompson will do enough countering Luque to win the fight, but if Thompson gets tentative, watch out.

As a general rule I usually think great wrestlers have a better chance at exerting their will then great strikers can land their perfect shot. That make sense? Its much more likely that Corey Anderson dominates the ground then Johnnie Walker gets off that perfect shot. Anderson has been known for a weak chin, that’s why this is such a fun fight, Walker is a striker up against a weak chin wrestler, Anderson is a wrestler against an electric striker with no ground game that we have seen. Anderson is the more mature fighter, I expect him to derail the Walker hype train, for now.

Couple quick ones:

Derrick Lewis returns tonight and cannot hit the big punch and loses to a superior technical fighter.

Chance Recountre and Shane Burgos both win.

Edmon Shabazyhan continues his win streak against a tough opponent in Brad Tavares. Katelyn Chookagian wins and becomes the next sacrifical lamb to Valentina Schevchenko.

I hope you guys enjoy tonight’s card. Its a helluva deep card, were in for a treat the next 2 months with 244 and 245. 245 is shaping up to be one of the best cards of all-time. Enjoy the festivities guys, see ya on Twitter tonight!